The Future of Pokémon

(Written on the 24th of September 2004)

*Cue P2k Climax Music*

Not because Pokemon's coming to an end, but because that music rocks. In fact, Pokemon is far from being at an end. As you may well know, there are over 1000 ideas for Pokemon and so far we've only seen 387 of them.

I really doubted with the release of R/S and the subsequent remakes of Red and Green that Pokemon was going to return with a new generation.The way in which Ruby and Sapphire had been set up seemed to me to indicate that they were cramming in the last decent Pokemon they had. I mean, look how many Legendary Pokemon there are and the fact that there are THREE Super-powered 3 stage Evo lines in the game. The rough and uneven number also seemed to lean towards this fact.

However, this summer, I was proved wrong. And all because of this little critter:

You all know Gonbe by now, right? He's the pre-evolution to Snorlax and was released unto the world just before the release of the 7th Movie - which it cameoed in. The Movies (especially the Pika-shorts) are well known for introducing the new Generation of Pokemon long before they're ever released in a game. So it bears no surprise that a new Pokemon appeared this summer in the Deoxys movie.

What was rather surprising was that it evolves into Snorlax. Snorlax has never been available in any game outside of the Kanto region. So where exactly will that put Generation 4? It wont be in Kanto, it's far too small to house a set of new critters as well as the original 150. Besides, the games require new lands to showcase the new Pokemon primarily and to stop the game from getting dry.

It's obvious now that Snorlax is going to be available for capture in Generation 4, but what does that mean for the other 385 Pokemon? Will they pull a Ruby/Sapphire? Will there be some convoluted way of backwards trading? (Not if it's on the DS - which wont be able to link up to the GBA games) Or will there even be... two lands?

It seems rather pointless to ponder over what Generation 4 will contain exactly, because frankly it could be anything. No-one saw Johto coming for Gold/Silver, let alone the ability to actually go back to Kanto and there was no way that anyone could have forseen the upgrades made in R/S concerning Battles, personalities and abilities. Generation 4 could completely turn the world of Pokemon upside down and spin it around. But the thing is, we'll love it anyway.

As far as Generation 4 goes, my estimates place it at a 2005 December or early 2006 release date in Japan. This can be deduced from a number of things:

• The Anime needs to go from Hoenn to the new land. Or will require a filler of sorts. In Japan, Ash currently stands with only needing two badges. Effectively, the series could be over by September 2005, leaving room for a filler. The filler couldn't possibly drag on for more than a few months and so we're talking Quarter 1 2006 as the latest date for Generation 4 to be released.
• Also is the fact that Nintendo relies on Pokemon heavily for profits. It's a guaranteed hit and is also guaranteed to sell bucket-loads of whatever console it is on. They are unlikely to delay it too long for fear of losing too much money too quickly without a saviour in the name of Pokemon to back the system up.
• My money is going on the next Pokemon games being on the DS. Partly because of the fact that it will guarantee a good few millions sales of the system worldwide and partly because of the fact that Pokemon is something that can lead the way in innovation - as it did in 1995 - and what better system to do it on than THE Innovative system?
• This is also backed up by my estimate that the next Gameboy can't possibly be released until the end of next year itself at the earliest. This means that the system might not even be ready until the next E3, which means Devkits for designing the games wont be available until the summer of 2005.
• Generation 4 HAS to be in development now. Even in the early stages of it. The mere fact that Gonbe was given the go-ahead to appear in the 7th Movie shows that the Pokemon list has been decided on to a large degree and that they are ready, if not in the process of, designing the games themselves. Since Devkits for the DS have been available since the start of the year (To have demos available for this year's E3), this means that Gamefreak will have had theirs since just after Christmas (I can guarantee you that Gamefreak and Shigsy's department both got their Devkits first, for obvious reasons) and will have been working on Generation 4 since BEFORE FR/LG was released.
• This rules out completely any chance the game has of being on the next Gameboy but puts it in the perfect position for being on the DS.

Due to the Japanese not having the same style of Consumer Christmas Period that we do, it is unlikely that the games WILL be available before Christmas, but rather just after it where sales are higher. Really, considering it's Pokemon they could start selling it on any date and people would still buy it in their thousands - as proved by the late November releases of Colosseum and Ruby/Sapphire over the last two years - but i'd say they're more likely to hold back a few weeks and release it in January than December.

There will be ONE Pokemon Game for the DS, that is for sure. In fact, it's most likely a launch title too - considering the fact that Pokemon = sales and the DS needs that to make it the success that people are expecting. The Pikachu Demo shown off at E3 for the DS is said to have been expanded into a proper Virtual Pikachu Pet game. This isn't that surprising as one of Nintendo's big name releases for the system is called Nintendogs... Which is a pretty neat - though surreal - game. The Pikachu game from Gamefreak is going to overshadow it though.

That Game, as i've said, is most likely to launch with the DS on all three launch dates. If not, i'd say it'll be released a month or two afterwards in Japan at least.

So, what about next year for the English speaking fans? Well, it looks as if all we'll get over the next year is Pokemon Emerald and that Pikachu game. It's enough to keep us going for a while though. The only problem being that we'll have to wait, definitely, until at least summer 2006 (here's hoping for another FR/LG style European Release date too) for Generation 4.

I'd say it's highly likely, however, that we will see at least one new spin-off game developed and released next year. Possibly by Genius Sonority instead of the main Gamefreak devision, but whoever makes it, we probably should expect something.

Well, you've read my ramblings now and i suppose i should get on with the list you're all dying to see eh? This encompasses my estimates for what we'll see over the next year or so.

This year

• Pikachu DS.
• Possibly one 4th Generation Pokemon before the end of the year. Most likely starring in a post-card alongside Gonbe or something.
• News of possible Emerald Release date for USA.

Start of 2005

• One or more 4th Generation Pokemon released on Pokemon of Japan website.
• Confirmation of Emerald Release date in USA.
• DS released in Europe/Australia, possibly with Pikachu DS.

Late Spring/Early Summer 2005

• At least one new Pokemon seen in preview for Movie 8.
• The method to get Celebi is announced.
• First screenshots of Generation 4 released through Coro Coro
• Gonbe receives an English name through the release of Movie Seven.
• Emerald either released at the end of this period or...

Summer - Halloween 2005

• Emerald Released in USA and the UK/Europe soon after.
• More new Pokemon as the chase begins towards the final goal. Coro Coro begins to reveal more screenshots and more Pokemon monthly.
• Pokemon Festa unveils new Pokemon and demos of the game. Possibly revealing Legendary Pokemon and definitely the titles for the new games.
• By this period any news on a new spin-off game will have been around for a month or two and could be ready for release for Halloween.
• Pokemon Advanced Series' draws to a close in japan and prepares for a filler. (Possibly)

Halloween-Christmas 2005

• Pokemon Overkill. A new Monster revealed almost every week with new screenshots coming in from Coro Coro, other japanese mags and official Nintendo/Pokemon websites.
• News of the new games will have reached UK and US Mags (who are realllly slow to pick up on these things) and both will begin previews of their own.
• The games are set with a confirmed release date.
• The games are either released in this period or..

Early 2006

• The games are released in Japan.

Spring - Early Summer 2006

• English names will begin to be announced, starting with the names of new Pokemon featured in Movie 8.
• The anime series Pokemon Advanced/Challenge/??, will begin to draw to a close and prepare for a possible filler. (Depends on what happens in Japan)

Summer 2006

• Following the release of English names through official Nintendo sites, screenshots and general promotion, the final few will be left named once the games are released in America in this period. UK/Europe/Australia will either get them now too or September/Octoberish.

It's quite daunting to think that the games wont be released here for another two years going by these estimates but we will have Emerald to tide us over in the meantime.

This IS an estimate made by myself going by the standard way things are run. There is no guarantee on how much of this holds true (although, i will guarantee you that some of it will) but you should use it as an guideline yourself for what is planned for the next year or two.

(Please note that this article refers heavily to the current time, position and status of the Pokemon World. This status and postition is open to change at any time and could render some of what is said in this article as nonapplicable or 'dated'. However, this article is meant to guide people from the current date through to what may happen in the future. This article will not be updated, despite descrepancies caused by time moving on and is not available for use on any other website. You may however use this guideline as a webmaster for what you think may come over the next few years. If you wish to use a modified timeline with your own projections and edits, please contact me before doing so.)